Sunday, 13 October, 2019

US dollar declines ahead of Fed decision

JPMorgan Chase was among the large banks to signal that lower interest rates will dent profits in 2019 JPMorgan Chase was among the large banks to signal that lower interest rates will dent profits in 2019
Russell Knight | 19 September, 2019, 15:13

In the USA, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

The interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve is likely to take most of the attention on Wednesday, with many expecting a rate cut from the central bank. And on that last day the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point. A dovish Fed could rally stocks and weaken the U.S. Dollar.

US manufacturing output increased solidly in August, boosted by a surge in the production of machinery and other goods, but the outlook for factories remains weak amid rising headwinds from trade tensions and slowing global economies. The central bank is expected to ease its policy this year.

The trade war is not the only economic speed bump. "The news from overseas, by wide consensus, has been disappointing".

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg with economists, the consensus is that the Jerome Powell led Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates this week. The Fed's July cut to a range of 2%-2.25% was the first since the Great Recession.

Powell and his colleagues also pointed to trade uncertainty back in July, when they cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. The minutes of the last meeting where there was a 25bps rate cut showed the line of division very clearly.

Consumer price inflation surprised to the upside in July, rising to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.0% previously, on the back of price rises in hotel rooms, video games and consoles, as well as less discounting of clothes in summer sales. It is now at around 2.1% and likely heading lower.

Platts: Oil Could Test $80 After Attacks In Saudi Arabia
Asia is the biggest consumer of Persian Gulf oil, absorbing three-quarters of the oil that traveled out of the region past year . Brent prices were up to $66.70 a barrel - while the USA benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, also climbed to $63.11.

India arrests senior Kashmir leader under controversial law
Vaiko's counsel told the court that there is no information about Abdullah and the provisions in which he has been detained. On the same day, Abdullah while speaking to TV channels had said that he had been kept under arrest in his house.

Flavored Vape Ban: NY Outlawing Flavored E-Cigarettes
For now the state's ban does not include menthol products, which could prove a helpful transition for menthol cigarette smokers. New Jersey is also considering a ban, but it would cover all vaping products, not just the flavored ones.

New projections issued Wednesday will show whether officials think things are getting worse, and how much further they think they need to go in terms of rate cuts or other steps to stay ahead of any developing problems.

In a rosy-hued speech in October, Powell detailed risks he thought the Fed faced at that point. It can also pinch lending to businesses and consumers and, if the disruption is prolonged, it can become a drag on a USA economy that relies heavily on the flow of credit. Indicators of manufacturing output fell.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the key focus today will be the Fed meeting tonight, where we look for another rate cut of 25bp but no pre-commitment to further cuts.

In his final public comments before the upcoming meeting, Powell described the USA labour market as in "quite a strong position", and downplayed any risk of recession in the United States.

A US official told Reuters on Tuesday the United States believes the attacks originated in southwestern Iran, an assessment that could further increase the rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh. In addition-and, perhaps, more importantly-the latest barrage of tweets certainly highlights President Trump's escalating fascination with negative Fed rates.

And annual profits are expected to be up only 3.5 percent.

That's because auto manufacturers have some wiggle room in the interest rate they charge to consumers, with some vehicle makers using lower rates as a way to entice buyers to snap up cars in lower demand. Last month, Trump said that Powell had "a horrendous lack of vision". "There are, however, no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation". Articles appear on euronews.com for a limited time.

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