Monday, 16 September, 2019

Growth of services activity, sales and jobs soften in August: IHS Markit

Earlier in the week IHS Markit survey had showed India’s manufacturing output in August grew at the slowest pace in 15 months Earlier in the week IHS Markit survey had showed India’s manufacturing output in August grew at the slowest pace in 15 months
Russell Knight | 04 September, 2019, 16:16

"After surveys indicated that both manufacturing and construction remained in deep downturns in August, the lack of any meaningful growth in the service sector raises the likelihood that the United Kingdom economy is slipping into recession".

India's services sector expanded in August but at a slower rate compared with July, according to a private survey of 400 businesses engaged in consumer, transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services.

Weakness in the U.K.'s manufacturing sector is in line with a global pattern that has seen businesses adopt a cautious approach to new investment when confronted by increasing levels of uncertainty about the future of worldwide trade in goods.

Meanwhile, confidence about activity in the next 12 months hit its lowest level since July 2016 amid worries about the impact of political uncertainty on client decision-making.

Combined with gloomy readings for the manufacturing and construction industries, which were published earlier this week, IHS Markit says the overall economy is on track to shrink again in the third quarter of 2019 - a result that would officially indicate a recession. It also highlighted "intense" pressure on operating margins at service sector companies.

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However, Samuel Tombs, chief United Kingdom economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the PMI's recession signal should not be taken literally.

Forward-looking elements of the euro zone services survey suggest not long. The upturn was modest and below its long-run average. "Note too that they exclude the retail and government sectors, which still are growing", he said. The PMI rose to 53.5 from July's 53.2, above the flash 53.4 reading.

South African GDP grew more than expected in the second quarter of this year thanks to a recovery in mining and manufacturing, data showed on Tuesday, after a shock contraction in the first quarter.

The IHS Markit India Composite PMI Output Index, that maps both the manufacturing and services industry, fell from 53.9 in July to 52.6 in August.

The headline index fell further below the 50 neutral mark, slipping from 49.5 in July to 48.9 in August and signalling a further deterioration in the health of the Asean manufacturing sector.

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