Goldman Sachs lowers U.S. fourth quarter GDP forecast
Goldman Sachs lowers U.S. fourth quarter GDP forecast
Goldman Sachs Lowers Growth Forecast amid Recession Fears Due to Trade War with China
13 August, 2019, 08:38
Goldman Sachs Group is raising concerns of a U.S. recession as the trade war with China intensifies, boosting the impact on economic growth.
Goldman Sachs said it lowered its fourth-quarter US growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8 per cent on a larger than expected impact from the developments in the trade tensions.
"We have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war", said Goldman Sachs chief USA economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients Sunday.
"Overall, we have elevated our estimate of the expansion impression of the trade conflict", the bank mentioned in the note authored by three of its economists, Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips and David Mericle. It again said it no longer expects a trade deal between ongoing U.S.
Goldman Sachs affirmed its expectation Trump's new round of tariffs will be implemented on Sept.1.
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"We expect tariffs targeting the remaining $300bn of U.S. imports from China to go into effect", said Goldman.
Goldman Sachs said it lowered its fourth-quarter United States growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8% on a larger than expected impact from the developments in the trade tensions. China allowed its currency to weaken, crossing the 7 yuan-per-dollar threshold, making that country's products cheaper on the global market, while also announcing it would halt imports of agricultural goods from the US. China quickly retaliated by banning purchases of USA agricultural products such as soybeans. In an earlier note to investors, Goldman asserted "a trade deal now looks far off" as Chinese policymakers seem more and more inclined not to make major concessions.
'The business sentiment effect of increased pessimism about the outlook from trade war news may lead ﬁrms to invest, hire, or produce less, ' according to the note. Trump's new 10 percent levy he announced July 31 also figured prominently in Goldman's downbeat assessment. He said that despite the risks, a crisis of the magnitude seen during the previous recession "would be a great surprise".
The People's Bank of China, however, denied using their currency to undermine the USA position and blamed fall in the Yuan on the trade war and disrupted economy.
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