Saturday, 21 September, 2019

System developing in Gulf could impact Central Texas weather

Fig. 1 NHC’s probability of development graphic Fig. 1 NHC’s probability of development graphic
Sandra Phillips | 10 July, 2019, 23:59

Lanza pointed to a tweet from Michael Lowry, a tropical storm expert who works at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, noting that while 50-60 percent of Atlantic tropical cyclones start near Africa as series of thunderstorms, that still leaves a good chunk with other origins. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

"Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday". Rain chances will begin today for Florida, Georgia & Alabama then shift west into Mississippi & Louisiana by Wednesday followed by a continued west movement of precipitation into Texas by the weekend. The maximum sustained winds of tropical depressions are 38mph while tropical storms are 39mph to 73pmh with anything higher becoming a hurricane.

A forecast of landfall anywhere from Lake Charles to New Orleans has equal weight roughly 72 hours out this point.and even the Upper Texas Coast remains in play.

The likelihood of a tropical system is still high in the northern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week. Right along the coast south of Louisiana, water temperatures are now approaching 32ºC - more than ample fuel for a healthy storm. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main impact/threat with this particular system, both in and near where it makes landfall by this weekend.

Regardless of the classification this system develops into, both Louisiana and MS are forecast to see very heavy rain - more than a foot in some places, Brink said.

The parish is just southeast of New Orleans and includes numerous city's suburbs. This could present an imminent possibility for disaster since the levees are only capable of protecting the city from surges up to 20 feet.

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Potential storm surge has caused the National Weather Service to issue a flood warning for the Mississippi River, including New Orleans, through Saturday.

A tropical depression, tropical storm or minimal hurricane is likely to have little to no impact on operations of offshore oil and gas rigs. Isolated tornadoes and rip currents are also likely.

It would be the first tropical system in the United States this hurricane season.

While El Niño conditions may suppress the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property.

The unnamed system is spinning in the same general area where Hurricane Michael gained strength last October.

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