Wednesday, 18 September, 2019

ECB's Coeure says markets may be overly pessimistic on inflation

US Trade Policy and Brexit Pose Major Risks for European Economy - EU Commission Euro zone cuts growth and inflation forecasts as U.S. trade uncertainty looms
Russell Knight | 12 July, 2019, 11:03

"Real GDP growth is forecast to pick up to 3.1% in 2019 as a whole before moderating to 2.7% in 2020", the Commission says in its interim European Economic Forecast for the summer 2019.

"On the domestic side, given the purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading relations between the EU27 and the United Kingdom, a "no deal" Brexit remains a major source of risk", the forecast read. "Domestic demand remained the main driver of growth due to strengthening investment and robust household consumption", reads the report.

However, a significant acceleration in growth is expected by the European Commission for Germany, as the country's growth is expected to increase to 1.4% in 2020, falling just below the expected eurozone average of 2020 of 1.6%.

Commenting the Commission's forecast for Latvia, the Commission's Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialog Valdis Dombrovskis said that Latvia's economic development this year was still being driven by strong domestic demand and increasing exports.

Draghi went further at a conference in Sintra later that month, saying that "further cuts in policy interest rates. remain part of our tools".

"Goods exports are expected to rebound in 2019, while service exports are expected to continue easing as supply side constraints become more evident and worldwide competition in the tourism sector intensifies". At the same time, net exports declined as a result of strong import growth.

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This year's forecast matches the ECB's projection, but for 2020 the commission's estimate is lower than the 1.4 per cent rate forecast by the central bank in its latest projections, released in June.

"In the first five months of 2018, inflationary pressures remained subdued due to negative inflation in unprocessed food prices as a result of changes in the applicable Value-Added Tax rate adopted in September 2018".

Malta's main sources of income, such as tourism, electronics, information technology services, iGaming and financial services, have thrived in recent years, and they are expected to continue doing so, with Malta's economy having a solid base for future success. "Weakness in the manufacturing sector, if it were to endure, and depressed business confidence, could spill over to other sectors and harm labour market conditions, private consumption and ultimately growth", the EC said.

For the European Union as a whole, the Commission forecast growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2020 (the same as in the spring forecast in May).

Inflation is projected at 3.1 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2020.

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