Monday, 21 October, 2019

Djokovic beats Federer in Wimbledon epic to win fifth title

Winner Novak Djokovic of Serbia and runner up Roger Federer of Switzerland pose with their trophies after their Men's Singles Final match at the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London Novak Djokovic faces Roger Federer in Sunday's Wimbledon final four years after the pair last faced each other on Centre Court. Credit Reuters
Lora Ball | 14 July, 2019, 23:15

That rather edgy first set downed our no tie breaks wager, but anyone that took a chance on the 3-1 win for Novak Djokovic that I suggested at 3.75 in the other semi final would have enjoyed a nice victor.

Federer, who is 37, is going for his 21st Grand Slam trophy overall on Sunday, while the 32-year-old Djokovic is playing for his 16th.

Djokovic looked stunned after Federer shanked a forehand on the last point, sending the ball skyward. Federer broke twice again and after just 25 more minutes the final was all-square with Djokovic managing just two winners in the set.

"How much can you still surprise somebody?"

"What I really respect about Novak Djokovic is that he inspires himself [through a pro-Federer/Nadal crowd] and plays better". Federer played all the tennis in the first four sets, he could have won all of them.

Plus, Djokovic has won their four most recent showdowns.

"At the end of the day, it comes very much down to who's better on the day, who's in a better mental place, who's got more energy left", Federer said, "who's tougher when it really comes to the crunch".

He is 8-1 in past finals at the grass-court tournament he's ruled the way no other man has. Djokovic won both of those previous matchups, in 2014 and 2015.

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Federer also won more points and more games, conjured more break points and delivered nearly three times as many aces as the Serb.

4-6, 13-12 (7/3) in a match settled by a historic tie-break.

"He is always able to do the most hard things easy", Nadal said about his longtime rival. Rafael Nadal has 18.

It'll either be Wimbledon championship No. 9 for Roger Federer or No. 5 for Novak Djokovic when they meet in the final. Of course, I'm going to be excited and nervous and everything that you can think of.

We've made a fair profit of just over three points on the daily bets so far this Wimbledon and on Sunday we have the final that seemed the most likely one at the outset.

Federer is looking for his ninth Wimbledon title, while Djokovic is after his fifth.

The Serb has also held serve 10% more often at 90% to Federer's 80%, so it's largely the disparity on second serve points won that has tipped the balance in Djokovic's favour in this career series lately.

Given this, and the fact that my model felt that Djokovic was value without taking this more recent head to head advantage into account, I think the [1.57] about him is reasonable value.

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