Tuesday, 18 June, 2019

Latvian GDP growth to "moderate", says European Commission

Andia  UIG via Getty Images Commission cuts euro zone growth forecasts for 2019
Russell Knight | 10 May, 2019, 03:55

Ireland's financial health will improve in the next two years although headline growth is expected to slow down because of global headwinds, the European Commission has said. With energy price inflation expected to moderate further in the coming quarters and little sign that higher wage growth has been fueling underlying price pressures, euro area inflation is forecast to reach 1.4 percent in both 2019 and 2020.

"More Europeans are now in work than ever and employment growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace".

While Brexit has been delayed to the end of October, the uncertainties surrounding the UK's divorce from the EU have already caused the European Commission to downgrade its economic growth forecast. The increase this year is attributable primarily to slower GDP growth and expansionary fiscal policies in some member states.

Aggregated euro zone debt is to fall to 85.8 percent of GDP this year from 87.1 percent last year, and decline further to 84.3 percent in 2020, with Germany moving below the European Union ceiling of 60 percent of GDP this year for the first time since 2002.

"There is also the risk that a rise in political uncertainty and less growth-friendly policies could result in a pull-back in private investment", the Commission said.

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Unemployment in the 19 countries sharing the euro is to fall to 7.3% next year from 7.7% expected this year.

The European economy continues will continue to grow in 2019 with real GDP expected to increase in all 28 nations of the bloc. The estimate for next year was trimmed to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent.

Even so, the economy will still rank in the premier league of the eurozone, beaten only by Malta's 5.5pc growth rate this year and in a tie with Slovakia. The growth will continue in all the States, especially because of strong domestic demand and rising employment.

The Commission expects the budget to be in balance this year, compared with government expectations of another small surplus, and expects there to be a surplus equivalent to 0.3pc of gross domestic product in 2020. On the external side, these include a further escalation of trade conflicts and weakness in emerging markets, particularly in China.

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