Monday, 14 October, 2019

International Monetary Fund scales down Indias growth projection for current fiscal to 7.3%

The seal of the International Monetary Fund is seen outside of the headquarters building in Washington The seal of the International Monetary Fund is seen outside of the headquarters building in Washington
Russell Knight | 10 April, 2019, 05:07

The IMF said that even in a relatively orderly no-deal Brexit scenario - with no delays at borders and minimal financial market turmoil - the economy would grow 3.5 percent less by the end of 2021 than it would under a smoother Brexit. -China trade war and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union as key risks and warned that chances of further cuts to the outlook were high.

China's growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States.

For the United States, IMF economists downgraded their growth forecast for this year to 2.3 per cent from 2.9 per cent in 2018. Global growth peaked at about 4 per cent in 2017.

The IMF said it supported the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause its rate-hiking cycle, which the global lender said would support the U.S. and world economies this year by easing financial conditions. -China trade tensions, problems in Germany's auto sector, uncertainty around Brexit and financial vulnerabilities in advanced economies.

"In India, growth is projected to pick up to 7.3 per cent in 2019 and 7.5 per cent in 2020, supported by the continued recovery of investment and robust consumption amid a more expansionary stance of monetary policy and some expected impetus from fiscal policy", IMF said in WEO, titled "Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery".

If 25 per cent tariffs were imposed on all trade between the world's two largest economies, US GDP would fall by up to 0.6 per cent and China's would fall by up to 1.5 per cent, the International Monetary Fund said.

But in a near conflicting position, the Chief Economist & Director of Research, IMF, Gita Gopinath, at a press briefing on the report also yesterday said: " Nigeria is likely going to experience a weakening in economic growth in the year 2019 following continued weakness of the global expansion".

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The party will work to cut tax and boost credit to small businesses to $14.4 billion by 2024, it added. The aim is to integrate the state more closely with the rest of the country.

The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and vehicle production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened.

Some of these analysts have maintained that Ghanaians should be moderate about their expectations despite the strong growth forecast.

Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan.

The report also predicted that Canada's inflation rate would come in at 1.7 per cent this year, after finishing 2018 at 2.2 per cent, and that gross debt as a percentage of GDP would see a slight decrease this year and continue to fall through 2024.

Still, America's ongoing tensions with China and other major trading partners remain a risk for the global economy.

China was trying to rebalance its massive economy away from investment and exports when U.S. President Donald Trump ordered higher tariffs on Chinese imports beginning in 2018. Meanwhile US GDP will grow 2.3 per cent in 2019, 0.2 percentage points lower than the IMF's January report foresaw.

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