Saturday, 25 May, 2019

Saudi Arabia in talks to cut crude output

Oil Pares Bear Market Collapse on Prospect of OPEC Curbs in 2019 Declining oil becomes an emerging market catalst - Bloomberg
Russell Knight | 12 November, 2018, 17:58

Saudi Arabia has said it will trim oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, as major producers met to consider cuts to shore up declining prices.

The crash deeply impacted oil producers, with Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit rising to 16% of its GDP - meaning lesser money for infrastructure, defence, and its social projects such as free medicine for citizens and so on. "We need to look at 2019 with the view to keeping the markets balanced". So, we know that supply is going to be reduced and in the medium term we can expect higher oil prices.

Last week, higher USA energy stockpiles drove WTI crude to its longest losing streak in more than 30 years, while Brent crude dropped below $70 a barrel for the first time since April.

The US also hit a record-high of 11.6m bpd in November, CNBC reported. He said the committee were reviewing the market and would draw up a plan to deal with the prospect of higher supply in 2019.

Suheil al-Mazrouei, energy minister of the host country UAE, hinted that producers are preparing to cut output.

The proposed reduction is from October production levels, Falih said.

Crude prices hit four-year highs of more than $80 a barrel in late September and early October over fears of the impact of United States sanctions on Iranian oil exports, sparking warnings of prices hitting $100.

"Prices have been falling amid a continued rise in crude supplies from big producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S., more than compensating for lost Iranian barrels", Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada told AFP before the meeting.

"With the Iranian sanctions not being as severe as initially feared, officials from the OPEC and non-OPEC producers may discuss at the weekend the need to bring compliance back down... or risk another 2014-style slide in prices".

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"While the Saudis said it's too early to go ahead with discussions on production cuts, Russian Federation said supply exceeding demand is a seasonal factor, signaling it's not necessarily keen to cut output", Takayuki Nogami, chief economist at Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. said, predicting "many twists and turns" before OPEC's next meeting in December.

Saudi Arabia had said the kingdom would cut its production by 500,000 barrels per day.

While Riyadh has chose to lower production, the rest of the attendees did not come to a consensus on the matter, according to Falih.

It was "premature to talk about a specific action", he told reporters, asked about the possibility of an output cut to support sliding prices.

The military official also played down Washington's rhetoric and said the United States has time and again hurled such threats against Iran only to find that "they have never had nor will they have" any effect in the future.

"Ideally, we don't like to cut", Al-Falih said.

He also attributed the sharp drop in prices to "microeconomic uncertainties" and signs of a build-up in crude inventories.

"We need not overreact" to falling prices, Mazrouei said, adding that crude was a dynamic market.

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