Sunday, 21 October, 2018

Downside risks to economy

Govt decides to ‘immediately’ approach IMF Pakistan to start talks with IMF as rupee continues to fall
Russell Knight | 12 October, 2018, 10:14

The US-China trade war will hobble global growth, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday, cutting its forecast for this year and next and predicting that "everyone is going to suffer" from a clash between the world's two biggest economies.

The global economy will now grow 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019, 0.2 percentage points lower than the fund's July forecast, and at the same pace of 2017.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde confirmed that Pakistan had requested the loans after meeting with Finance Minister Asad Umar in Indonesia, without saying how much the Pakistanis had asked for.

Jakarta expects the economy to grow by 5.2 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent next year, given external pressures.

The IMF said the balance of risks was now tilted to the downside, with a higher likelihood that financial conditions will tighten further as interest rates normalize, hurting emerging markets further at a time when USA -led demand growth will start to slow as some tax cuts expire.

It cautioned, "Turkey has a currency that is about 40 percent cheap to its long-term average, and the International Monetary Fund assumes the CA deficit will shrink from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2018 to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2019".

The possible failure of Brexit negotiations also dampened the eurozone's growth outlook.

Global trade tensions would also have a bearing on the eurozone's 2018 growth forecast, which was cut to 2 percent from 2.2 percent previously.

Global growth is expected to remain steady at 3.7 per cent in 2020, as the decline in advanced economy growth with the unwinding of the U.S. fiscal stimulus and the fading of the favorable spillovers from United States demand to trading partners is offset by a pickup in emerging market and developing economy growth.

China accuses former Interpol chief of graft
Meng's leadership also provided a mechanism to legitimise China's global efforts to silence critics among its diaspora. Meng Hongwei , 64, vanished from public view after taking a flight from France to Beijing in late September.

Learn More About Mental Health Awareness in Teens with NAMI Sarasota
Gaga wrote in the Guardian: "The time has come for us all, collectively, to tackle the causes and symptoms of mental illness". They were really proud of being a young parent.

Putin Congratulates Nurmagomedov After McGregor Win, Issues Veiled Warning
The NSAC made the decision to withhold Nurmagomedov's purse after the post-fight antics, while McGregor was paid in full. Nurmagomedov wrote: "I would like to address @ufc". "We have defended our honor and this is the most important thing".

It sees the unemployment rate dropping to 3.9 percent in 2018 and to 3.5 percent in 2019.

The IMF said higher trade barriers could disrupt global supply chains, slow the spread of technology and ultimately lower global productivity and welfare.

The fund urged governments to focus on policies that can share the benefits of growth more widely, helping counter the growing mistrust of institutions, and to avoid "protectionist reactions to structural change".

It also said renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate, are crucial.

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the United States and China in 2019.

Meanwhile, Dr Obstfeld is concerned that several economies have adopted policies that are "unsustainable over the longer term" to boost growth.

Trump has repeatedly touted Wall Street records as proof of the success of his economic programme including his confrontational trade strategy, and has frequently criticised the Fed for gradually raising interest rates, which could press the brakes on equity markets.

Washington has also imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, citing national security concerns, and has also warned it could impose a 25% levy on imported cars and vehicle parts.

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