Friday, 20 April, 2018

Normal monsoon expected this season: IMD

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday IMD issues thunderstorm warning across Telangana
Patty Aguilar | 16 April, 2018, 14:46

IMD forecasts normal monsoon rains to be 97% of the long-term average, Mr K.J. Ramesh, director general of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told in a press conference.

IMD's SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data upto March.

Earlier this month, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had also predicted normal Monsoon this year.

The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). India receives 89 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, which is nearly 75 per cent of its annual rainfall.

Monsoon is considered as "normal" if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA.

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The negative fallout of a good monsoon followed by a good harvest is that unless it is supported by strong offtake measures it could lead to a glut in many crops plummeting farm incomes.

However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said.

The top IMD official said there was "very less probability" of a deficient Monsoon this year, and added that the date of onset of Monsoon will be declared in the middle of the month of May.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.

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