Tuesday, 16 January, 2018

Crude Oil Rallies After API Shocker

US gas, oil production up in 2018, but gasoline prices will be higher: EIA NEW YORK Petroleumworld 01 10 2018
Russell Knight | 13 January, 2018, 11:46

On November 31, 2016, the oil cartel Opec and non-Opec countries committed to cut down supplies by 1.8 million barrels a day till the end of 2018. Sure, we will see some Improvements in technology and rising prices will get us to produce more oil at some point, but it may take a major price spike before the markets get the message. EIAs January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $60/b in 2018 and $61/b in 2019. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.3 million barrels per day as refineries operated at 95.3% of their operable capacity last week.

US crude production is forecast to average 10.3 million bpd in 2018, which would be the highest annual average USA production, surpassing a previous record of 9.6 million bpd in 1970.

While we saw an increase in products, that was pale in comparison to recent demand.

Some of Russia's counterparts in OPEC, namely Iran, had expressed concern that the rally would stimulate USA shale oil production, which has balanced the effort to narrow the gap between supply and demand over the previous year. Moving that crude oil from the United States to Asia costs approximately $0.50/b more than to ship Brent from the North Sea to Asia. India imported around 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in 2017, according to trade flow data in Thomson Reuters Eikon. During the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day, up by an impressive 2.5% from the same period a year ago. On Jan. 9, the World Bank increased its global economic growth estimates for 2018 to 3.1 percent after growth in 2017 was stronger than expected.

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More immediate price support came overnight from the United states, where crude inventories fell nearly 5 million barrels in the week to January 5, to 419.5 million barrels.

Homes that use heating oil will spend an average of $215 or 17 percent more this year than last, and that's assuming a "normal" winter. The EIA anticipates OPEC production to increase by 500,000 b/d in 2019 as it slowly returns to pre-agreement levels.

Oil prices fell yesterday after hitting a three-year high over $70 a barrel the previous day, but remained on track to post a fourth straight week of gains. In 2019, crude oil production is forecast to rise to an average of 10.8 million b/d.

"Inventories ended 2017 9.3 percent above the five-year average, a stark contrast to the 35.6 percent surplus seen at the end of 2016", Oil Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig said in a statement emailed to UPI. The EIA expects global inventories to increase by 300,000 b/d in 2019. Non-OECD consumption growth is expected to account for 1.2 million b/d and 1.3 million b/d of the growth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

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