Sunday, 17 November, 2019

Oil erases weekly drop on Forties pipeline outage, IEA outlook

WARM UP... The brass band warms up at the 2016 Swakopmunder Musikwoche Oil erases weekly drop on Forties pipeline outage, IEA outlook
Russell Knight | 16 December, 2017, 06:00

The West Texas Intermediate for January Delivery added 0.44 dollar to settle at 57.04 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for February delivery gained 0.87 dollar to close at 63.31 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.

Kilduff was referring to the shutdown by Ineos of the North Sea pipeline due to cracks that are expected to take anywhere from several weeks to a month to fix, thus potentially removing as much as much as 13 million barrels of crude from the market. Russian Federation is now the biggest single supplier of European gas and the Baumgarten blast triggered a state of emergency in Italy which reverberated across Europe's energy markets.

US supply, now close to matching levels of top producers Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, will likely move oil markets into a supply surplus in the first half of 2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Preliminary weekly data suggests that USA production increased further into early December.

"Today's price action is more related to a rather dovish sounding monthly report from the International Energy Agency", said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

The IEA left its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged for 2017 at 1.5 million bpd, marking a rise of 1.6 percent, and for 2018, at 1.3 million bpd, equal to an increase of 1.3 percent.

The IEA pointed out that inventories in developed nations have fallen to their lowest level since July 2015; but in noting that us crude output next year would climb by 870,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from its November forecast of 790,000 bpd, the agency stated, "On our current outlook, 2018 may not necessarily be a happy New Year for those who would like to see a tighter market; total supply growth could exceed demand growth". The agency says that OPEC needs to watch shale production with greater attention after the US Energy Information Administration recently announced month-on-month supply increase to a total daily production 9.78 million barrels. All the results of the outage are seen as helping OPEC in its mission to reduce global inventories.

We Have Some More Weather Coming, People
The NWS also issued a gale watch for coastal waters of New Jersey beginning Friday night and lasting through Saturday morning. Sunday's forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high of 37 and a 20 percent chance of snow and rain before noon.

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Joel Embiid makes Karl-Anthony Towns his latest Instagram trash talk target
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In a deal struck in November, OPEC and other producers including Russian Federation agreed to extend supply cuts which began in January through 2018 as it targets bringing stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development back in line with their five-year average.

While the supply side of the equation was also supported by the OPEC-led consortium of countries to continue output curbs, there were growing signs that production in the U.S. could undermine the cartel's efforts to support crude prices. Stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels in the week to December 8, the fourth consecutive week of decline, to 442.99 million barrels, the lowest since October 2015.

American crude inventories fell this week by more than 5 million barrels to stand at 443 million barrels.

"The fear is that the barrels are moving from one place to the next, essentially not disappearing from the system", Mr. Staunovo said. Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 902,000-barrel gain, the API data showed.

Stephanie Yang contributed to this article.

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